Already I prophesied to my countrymen all their disasters. – Aeschylus, Agamemnon
I have often joked that a better nom de plume would’ve been Cassandra McNeill, because despite my extremely high level of accuracy in predicting the development and course of social phenomena, most people tend to discount my forecasts anyway. Those of you who have been reading this blog for a long time may remember “Crystal Ball“, my column of four years ago today, in which I wrote:
…major moral panics only tend to last about 20 years at the outside…most…endure for about the time it takes a generation to grow from infancy to adulthood (during which time a lot of the “leaders” who enable such panics die off or at least retire, and young liberals who reject their elders’ crusades on general principle come into power)…Given this pattern, the “human trafficking” hysteria should be dead by the end of this decade; though there were a few alarmists spreading the propaganda (which if one treats it skeptically reads an awful lot like the “Satanic abuse” literature with sex and profit replacing “Satanism” as the supposed motivator) by the mid-‘90s, official designation of it as a “world-wide problem” occurred in 2000 and the genuine hysteria did not begin until about 2003…If things run according to form, we can predict that over the next three years skepticism about “trafficking” (especially in regard to its conflation with sex work) will slowly increase, and by about 2015 it will be possible for a major media outlet to publish articles critical of both the statistics and the very concept. By 2017 public funding for anti-sex worker hate groups will begin to dry up, and by 2019 or 2020 we should expect it to virtually disappear from public discourse except for a wave of books and documentaries by “experts” who couldn’t be bothered to speak out against it while it was going on but are happy to make a quick buck from it after it’s safely over…
As they usually do, things are unfolding exactly as I predicted; those who take the time to peruse the “Traffic Circle” tag will note that though articles debunking “sex trafficking” have appeared for the past three years, the number of such articles (and the prestige of the publications in which they appeared) dramatically increased in 2015. The more reputable “trafficking experts” are beginning to distance themselves from the hysteria (even to the point of denying the myths), and even cops, politicians and yellow journalists sometimes find themselves in the position of having to admit that there is no evidence for their lies.
But two things happened in 2015 to virtually assure that the panic adhered to my schedule; one of them was predictable (and had been in development for some time), while the other was a gift from the federal government (obligingly shooting its own hysteria in the foot). The first was that Amnesty International, probably the largest and most respected human rights organization, finally took the long-anticipated step of advocating for decriminalization. And though the prohibitionists were understandably upset about that, the announcement also brought a large number of heretofore-silent supporters out of the woodwork; Amnesty’s announcement apparently gave them the courage to do the right thing at last, and that is probably worth as much to the movement as Amnesty’s actual advocacy for the cause will be.
The second, unexpected development was that mere weeks after the Supreme Court gave the gay rights movement its last major concrete goal by legalizing same-sex marriage everywhere in the US, the feds staged an ill-considered raid to shut down the venerable gay escort site, Rentboy. I say “ill-considered” because none of these thugs with titles bothered to think about the fact that the narrative they’ve promoted for over a decade now pretends that sex work is a form of “male violence against women”, and that all sex workers are passive, doll-like “victims” of evil “pimps and johns”. In other words, there’s no room in the “sex trafficking” paradigm for male sex workers, and by calling attention to their existence the feds shot themselves in the foot while simultaneously giving Gay, Inc another target to aim its big guns toward. While it’s true that a lot of really ignorant gay activists are now trying to pretend that they just invented the sex worker rights movement, it’s also true that they’ve got a powerful activism and mind-changing apparatus that we lack, and which is now gearing up to support our cause.
As I predicted, the “sex trafficking” hysteria is beginning to collapse, and will soon be a thing of the past. Unfortunately, the laws it has spawned will not disappear along with the moral panic; still, nationwide same-sex marriage followed Lawrence v. Texas by only twelve years. Decriminalization is coming, and the end of “sex trafficking” hysteria is only the first step in that direction.
You are so sharp.
“Decriminalization is coming.” I hope and hope again that you are correct. Indeed, I share your confidence that the “traffick jam” has about run its course. But what I’m wondering is how the confluence of the three things you cite (the “traffick” thing approaching its sell-by date, Amnesty’s call for decrim, and the Rentboy takedown) presage actual decriminalization? Wouldn’t history tend to predict that the trafficking panic will be succeeded by another; that the US regime will successfully ignore the words of Amnesty (as it has done more than once in the past), and that the Rentboy thing will result only in more government affirmation of things homosexual (but NOT polluted by commerce)?
Again, I surely hope you’re right. I’d just feel better if I could see a little more of the mechanism.
Might just be moving onto the next phase of the feminist story, i.e. that all women are trafficked. Laws are being rolled out on the principles that women are exploited by being “sexualized” by men or by having to work for money. Not sure how the gays will fit in, but they may be so duped by “social justice” that they ignore their own interests
I’m afraid I my feelings are similar to the two commenters above me.
“Decriminalization is coming”
Will that be before or after the world collapses thanks to police militarization, bureaucratic overkill, economic/environmental mismanagement, and the coming rebellion against all of the above?
If decriminalization doesn’t come before, then I doubt any of us will be able to enjoy it when it does come because we’ll have much bigger problems taking up our time.
The sad thing is, you may get your desire, but I foresee a bad time for all of us over the next 10-20 years. You may win your battle, but the bloated monster that is the Government (I include fed, state and local) is always looking for ways to stick its damn nose into other people’s business.
An example? How about an executive order to fix a broken “gun show loophole”…even though there’s no such thing. Yes, private sellers can walk around offering a gun for sale. But these kinds of sales are a tiny fraction of guns sales, either at the shows or at large. But the monster has to intrude…find a wedge they can bang on until they can send their storm troopers kicking in our door.
Think I’m exaggerating? What would you call an FDA SWAT team that crashes in to a farmers market in full gear to arrest a farmer for (gasp)…selling raw milk??? One agent could have made the arrest. Or they could have gone to the farmer’s home. But no…THEY wanted to make a statement to all of the other farmers! Defy us…and the storm troopers…eh…FDA SWAT teams are on their way. I mean, how ridiculous. Food and Drug Administration SWAT team. Fighting the scourge of…RAW MILK. God knows I feel safer for it…
Sorry all. I’ve been up all night and I’m in a crabby mood. 🙁
On a related note, how do you explain to friends and family that have NO understanding of history that we have been living in a police state since at least the 70’s??? Without the context of history, how do you explain it to them. “Oh, those German guys in the goose stepping boots. Didn’t they start a war or something?” >sigh<
For the sake of argument, assume your friends and family did have an understanding of history and you got through to them. What would you have them do?
Great question. And I really don’t know. Maybe in this case ignorance truly is bliss, because I don’t see a way out of this mess unless the government collapses or there’s another revolution. Either way, millions would die, and the thought really makes me sick to my stomach.
“I really don’t know.”
That’s the crux of the matter. I’ve seen seemingly countless opinion pieces, online comments, etc., sharing the exact same thoughts, and almost to a one they conclude in the exact same way: ‘revolution’ is coming, and we don’t really want it, but we don’t know any way to stop it. No possible solutions to avoid an outcome that you confess makes you sick to your stomach.
Here’s my solution. It seems like one thing almost all agree on is that the US government started out fine, but has been corrupted through years of laws, amendments and bureaucratic rules. It’s reached the point where we have people (Maggie to cite just one example) who have decided it’s not worth bothering with any more, even abstaining from the most basic act of voting.
Well, what if all those people got together and recognized that probably more than a few of them possess the intelligence, fortitude, as well as the charisma to wrest control of government back from the allegedly horrible people whose devices it’s been left to?
I’m thinking of people like Krulac, Cabrogal, and yes, even Maggie. I’d vote for any one of them in a second. I saw someone attempt to counter such a proposal (made by someone else in another medium than this blog) by saying “I’m too busy minding my own business to mind everyone else’s.” Fair enough, but I think that’s shortsighted. If you’re President, and you’re consciously choosing not to mind everyone’s business (indeed, you’re setting a tone that can lead to repealing of laws and regulations rather than continuously adding more), then others are kept from doing so as well. Wouldn’t that be a good thing?
Sorry, but that reaction has been looking for a reason to come out for a long time.
Quietman, I sympathize with your viewpoint. But…I really do think it’s too late. If I felt the “voters” had a chance in hell of taking back the government then I would have suggested that in my answer. Problem is, congress and the executive branch no longer run the machine. Back in the 70’s (I think) congress gave all of the agencies the right to pass regulations and enforce them as if they were law. That’s why we have an FDA Swat team…and a Dept of Education SWAT team…and a HUD SWAT team…and an EPA SWAT team; those agencies can enforce their regulations at the point of a gun WITHOUT the approval of congress. in other words, we have exactly what caused the colonist to revolt: taxation without representation! And the monster just keeps growing, sucking up the resources of the country.
And the trigger of it all was the British Military Governor deciding to confiscate the powder and shot of the colonist at Concord. And what do we have going on now…the ruling class working to chip away at our 2nd Amendment rights.
I said “revolution or the government collapses”. I should have said “WHEN the government collapses and the revolution starts”. At some point there won’t be any money for the FEDS to vacuum up. Yeah, they’ll just keep printing money…worthless money. The day will come where the grocery stores will either stop accepting the food stamp cards or they’ll go out of business. When everyone that lives on food stamps can no longer get food, what happens??? Yeah…not pretty.
I may not have it right, but in my mind a police state is a place where everyone can be found guilty of “something” and thrown in to jail and tried at the DA’s convenience. “Papers, please” is only a small part of it.
Well…damn. Just occurred to me…I wonder how far we are from the government grabbing the food supplies and making sure the “right” people get fed. Sounds silly in a country as blessed as ours is by “plenty”. But the foundation is weak…and cracking.
I know I’m crazy…but I can see patterns and swirls in events that mimic patterns of history. I’m so sad in my heart for my children and grandchildren. But honestly Quietman…other than a cleansing by fire, I don’t what else to do.
Oh, FYI, I haven’t quit voting yet. But it’s become more habit than anything. This year, I’ll vote AGAINST Hillary on principle. But it may be my last election.
History repeats itself, I am half way through “The Sexual History of London” and during the mid to late 19th century in Britain, it was the same old hysteria as today: rent boys, the social purity movement, white slavery and fear of the trafficking of English virgins out of Britain to foreign lands by dirty foreigners. This was all devastating to the whore business. Well, I am only half way through this book so I don’t know how it all ends, but before the social purity movement, London was an open, licentious and brazen place
I’m part Danish and have spent some time over there, and have come to the conclusion that Denmark is one of the most socially conservative nations in Europe. On the books they are very tolerant and liberal, but in practice anyone who behaves outside of the norm is subject to undue scrutiny and scorn. There is a lot of group-think in that little country! I would get a little of that as an American just because my social views were so different.